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Expectancy & Kelly Calculator

Is your strategy actually profitable? Expectancy per trade, profit factor and Kelly fraction.

Result
Expectancy per trade
35.00
Expected over sample
3,500.00
Reward/risk ratio
2.00 R
Profit factor
1.64
Kelly fraction (full)
17.5 %
Quarter Kelly (practical)
4.38 %
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Formula

Expectancy = (Win% × Avg win) − (Loss% × Avg loss) · Kelly = Win% − Loss%/R

How to read the result

  • —Expectancy is stated per trade in the same unit you enter — currency or R.
  • —Full Kelly is far too aggressive for discretionary trading; a quarter or half Kelly is the practical range.
  • —You need at least 50–100 trades before these numbers stop being noise.

Frequently asked questions

What is a good profit factor?

Above 1.0 you are net profitable. 1.3–1.6 is a realistic, robust discretionary result; anything above 3 on a small sample usually means curve fitting or a missing outlier loss.

Educational tool only. No investment advice. Verify every number against your broker's contract specifications before trading.